With the 2024 Apple autumn release cycle approaching, all eyes are beginning to turn to the iPhone 16 series. While the phone itself remains officially under wraps for now, rumours and seemingly leaked manuscripts have begun to cast a layer of mystery over the Autumn 2024 launch, and many are already looking forward to the iPhone 16 release. This begs the question: how will the iPhone 16 perform in the market? This article will be from the past data, combined with various information channels to analyse, I hope to need to understand the iphone16 market performance and trends to help people.
I.A Look at the Global Smartphone Market
1.1 iPhone’s current market segment
According to the data, the iOS market share share in 2023 is more in North America, with the United States having the largest share. Apart from North America, the market share share is followed by Oceania and Europe.
1.2 iPhone’s market growth in previous years
The chart shows that the iPhone sees a big dip yearly in Q3 before a considerable spike in Q4.
This coincides with Apples forecasted sales as sales normally drop before their Q4 announcement of the new release for iPhone.
It also displays that although 2022 and the beginning of 2023 were unsuccessful, we are seeing a turn around at the end of 2023 which will follow into 2024
1.3 iPhone 15 Sales & Statistics
Apple Saw its first decline in revenue in over 15 years, reasons had very little to do with the iPhone or Apple.
Due to a global declining demand for smartphones, however data does show that this is expected to rise through 2024 in countries that have not reached smartphone saturation.
It showed in Q1 ’24 that global sales were up, it also shows that there is still a lot of capacity in countries where Apple’s mobile phone market capacity is not saturated.
II. Destination Market Specifics
This can show that Apple is becoming an outlier, when considering competitors dropping performance.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects smartphone market shipments to decline by 15%, while his reasoning is logical – the newest data from the first quarter of 2024 definitely contradicts his initial predictions.
2.1 iPhone Market in Asia
We can see a slight drop by 1.2% from2022 to 2023. Mainly due to a drop in Chinese revenue which totals 20% of all iPhone global revenue.
However an increase in Indonesia and Vietnam demand has been seen while the rest of Asia reaches smartphone saturation. Rises in demand in Indonesia and Vietnam has caused an 18% surge in revenue in the first quarter of 2024.
2.2 iPhone Market in the US
From the data, we can conclude that Apple sales in the United States are steadily increasing. The United States, as Apple’s largest market, is one of the main sources of its sales. The market share has been increasing from 2023 to 2024 and has overtaken Android phones to become the largest mobile phone manufacturer in the US in terms of market share.
Furthermore, contrary to the global smartphone sales trend, Apple’s sales in the US grew by 8% in 2023. This shows that even though the US is already the region with the largest share of Apple’s mobile phone sales, there is still a lot of potential in terms of sales.
2.3 iPhone Market in the UK
We see a drop in sales from 2022 – 2023
However market share data which includes statistics from Q1 2024 shows a slight increase in market share, proving that 2024 may possibly yet prove to be a more successful year in comparison to 2023
2.4 iPhone Market in the EU
What we can learn from the data is that the EU saw an overall decline in smartphones from 2022 to 2023.
However, one thing worth noting is that Apple sales increased by 1% from Q3 to Q4 2023 and overtook Samsung as the mobile phone manufacturer capturing the highest market share in the EU region. And we can notice that all the other mobile phone vendors, except for the iPhone, have experienced varying degrees of market share decline.
It shows that the release of new models has given a shot in the arm to iPhone sales, which is beneficial in helping Apple’s market share to achieve a reversal.
III.Apples iPhone 16 Prediction
3.1 Projected iPhone 16 market acquisition
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the iPhone 16 will see even more success than its predecessor
Analysts state that iPhone pricing will be the determinant factor – while some believe there will be a price increase across the board, this is very out of character for Apple during a global market slowdown.
The iPhone 16 according to Morgan Stanley will prove to break the iPhone slump, a slight price increase to Pro Models may indeed correlate to greater revenues with no decrease in sales.
3.2 iPhone 16 production information
According to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple has reportadely lowered its 2024 shipments (including iPhone 15) to 200million units (Down 15% YoY to 2023)
Reasons include structural difficulties with the paradigm shift to foldable phones
With the Chinese market down, and the rise of Huawei – this is an ongoing reason for a decrease in shipments
Demand is on the high for a foldable design for a replacement smartphone
However, thus far Ming-Chi Kuo’s predictions are being proven incorrect with data for the first quarter of 2024 showing the iPhone and Apple revenue to be marginally higher
Conclusion
iPhone Sales are experiencing a spike toward the end of 2023 after a slow year for the smartphone market as a whole. The initial data from Q1 2024 is very promising with rises in revenue and sales. Apple saw varying degrees of sales growth in all regions in 2023-2024, especially after the release of new models, showing a clear upward trend and overtaking Android phones in the US and the EU as their top regional market share share. The iPhone 16 according to Morgan Stanley will prove to break the iPhone slump, a slight price increase to Pro Models may indeed correlate to greater revenues with no decrease in sales.
C&T is also keeping up with the new iPhone models by designing many new cases and will be unveiled at the upcoming Canton Fair in Guangzhou and Hong Kong Fair. If you are interested in them, please contact us or go to the show to learn more about the latest iPhone 16 accessories.
